Will above 175000 jobs be added in April 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will above 175000 jobs be added in April 2026?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing May 8, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with an 8% probability on a historically common outcome—175k+ monthly job additions occurred in roughly 70-80% of months pre-pandemic—yet the astronomical 46,349% implied yield on Yes contracts suggests severe illiquidity rather than genuine conviction in sub-175k employment.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with an 8% probability on a historically common outcome—175k+ monthly job additions occurred in roughly 70-80% of months pre-pandemic—yet the astronomical 46,349% implied yield on Yes contracts suggests severe illiquidity rather than genuine conviction in sub-175k employment. The $316.81 open interest and $100 daily volume are dangerously thin, creating a 4¢ spread and high cliff risk (24/100), while the recent price decline from 5¢ to 4¢ over seven days may reflect either informed selling or random noise given the minimal trading activity. With 19 days to resolution and the April jobs report typically released early May, this market lacks sufficient depth for reliable directional trading.
Resolution rules
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 175000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of April 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPAYROLLS-26APR-T175000 yes 100