Alaska · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03
Alaska is priced at 9¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 8¢ bid, 8¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 15 inside KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03.
Price history
9¢ current
Contract brief
If Alaska has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Alaska
Rank
#5 of 15
Leader
Texas 17¢
Range
1¢-17¢
Family volume
$286
Identifier
KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-AK
Jun 7, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
8¢
Ask
8¢
Spread
0¢
Reported volume
$7K
Family rank
#5 of 15
15 outcomes · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
Family volume
$286
Orderbook snapshot
8 / 8¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Alaska has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
Identifier
KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-AK
Event family
KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$286
Outcomes
15
Highest price
Texas 17¢
Current share
0%
Texas
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-TX
Ohio
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-OH
Michigan
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-MI
Nebraska
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-NE
Iowa
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-IA
Alaska
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-AK
North Carolina
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-NC
New Hampshire
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-NH
Maine
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-ME
Georgia
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-GA
Minnesota
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-MN
Kansas
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-KS
South Carolina
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-SC
Florida
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-FL
Montana
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-MT
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 9% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.