Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing January 3, 2027. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 1130.7% implied yield for Yes positions versus just 17.3% for No, suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns given the $0 24-hour volume and modest $3,404.91 open interest.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 1130.7% implied yield for Yes positions versus just 17.3% for No, suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns given the $0 24-hour volume and modest $3,404.91 open interest. The 12-cent price appears artificially depressed relative to Alaska's historical competitiveness in Senate races, though the narrow 1-cent spread and 261 days to expiration provide reasonable liquidity for entry. The high cliff risk index of 8 and neutral regime score warrant caution, as the outcome depends on relative margins across all 34 Senate races—a complex multi-event dependency that makes this more speculative than a simple Alaska-specific prediction.
Resolution rules
If Alaska has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-AK yes 100