Texas · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03
Texas is priced at 20¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 17¢ bid, 20¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 15 inside KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03.
Price history
20¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If Texas has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Texas
Rank
#1 of 15
Leader
Texas 17¢
Range
2¢-17¢
Family volume
$308
Identifier
KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-TX
Jun 8, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 27m ago
Implied probability
Bid
17¢
Ask
20¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$24
Family rank
#1 of 15
15 outcomes · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
Family volume
$308
Orderbook snapshot
17 / 20¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Texas has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
Identifier
KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-TX
Event family
KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$308
Outcomes
15
Highest price
Texas 17¢
Current share
8%
Texas
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-TX
Ohio
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-OH
Michigan
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-MI
Nebraska
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-NE
Alaska
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-AK
Iowa
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-IA
North Carolina
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-NC
Maine
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-ME
New Hampshire
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-NH
Florida
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-FL
Georgia
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-GA
Minnesota
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-MN
Kansas
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-KS
Montana
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-MT
South Carolina
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-SC
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.