Iowa · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03
Iowa is priced at 13¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 12¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 16 inside KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03.
Price history
13¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
If Iowa has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Iowa
Rank
#2 of 16
Leader
Texas 15¢
Range
1¢-15¢
Family volume
$18K
Identifier
KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-IA
Sep 17, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 4m ago
Implied probability
Bid
12¢
Ask
13¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#2 of 16
16 outcomes · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
Family volume
$18K
Orderbook snapshot
12 / 13¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Iowa has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
Identifier
KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-IA
Event family
KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$18K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Texas 15¢
Current share
0%
Texas
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-TX
Iowa
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-IA
Michigan
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-MI
Ohio
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-OH
Alaska
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-AK
Maine
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-ME
Nebraska
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-NE
Kansas
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-KS
New Hampshire
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-NH
South Carolina
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-SC
Florida
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-FL
Georgia
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-GA
Idaho
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-ID
Minnesota
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-MN
Montana
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-MT
South Dakota
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-SD
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.442
Observability
none
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.