Michigan · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03
Michigan is priced at 10¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 10¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 15 inside KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03.
Price history
10¢ current
Contract brief
If Michigan has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Michigan
Rank
#4 of 15
Leader
Texas 16¢
Range
1¢-16¢
Family volume
$133
Identifier
KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-MI
Jul 28, 2026, 12:08 PM UTC · 4m ago
Implied probability
Bid
10¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$12K
Family rank
#4 of 15
15 outcomes · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
Family volume
$133
Orderbook snapshot
10 / 11¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Michigan has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
Identifier
KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-MI
Event family
KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$133
Outcomes
15
Highest price
Texas 16¢
Current share
0%
Texas
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-TX
Ohio
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-OH
Iowa
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-IA
Michigan
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-MI
Alaska
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-AK
Maine
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-ME
Nebraska
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-NE
North Carolina
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-NC
Florida
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-FL
Georgia
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-GA
New Hampshire
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-NH
Minnesota
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-MN
South Carolina
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-SC
Kansas
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-KS
Montana
kalshi · KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-MT
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.