Will Michigan have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Michigan have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing January 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $3,659 open interest, making the 7¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $3,659 open interest, making the 7¢ price potentially unreliable. The astronomical 3354% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the tiny position size rather than genuine expected returns, while the wide 5¢ spread indicates difficulty in establishing fair value. With 261 days to expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 24, the market has time for price discovery, but the recent sharp decline from 6¢ to 4¢ over seven days suggests either informed selling or thin-market volatility rather than fundamental repricing.
Resolution rules
If Michigan has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-MI yes 100