Will Andrew Sneed be the Democratic nominee for AL-05?
Prediction markets currently give a 92% probability that Will Andrew Sneed be the Democratic nominee for AL-05?. This contract trades at 92¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. Andrew Sneed's nomination odds have contracted sharply from 88¢ to 78¢ over seven days, suggesting recent negative information or shifting primary dynamics in AL-05.
Analysis
Andrew Sneed's nomination odds have contracted sharply from 88¢ to 78¢ over seven days, suggesting recent negative information or shifting primary dynamics in AL-05. The extreme 228.8% implied yield on the "No" side combined with very low liquidity ($905 open interest, $5,841 daily volume) indicates this is a thin, volatile market where the 78¢ price may not reflect deep conviction. With 566 days until resolution and a realized volatility of 224%, this remains highly uncertain despite the current high probability, and the 3¢ spread suggests limited market depth for meaningful position-building.
Resolution rules
If Andrew Sneed wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 AL-05 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXALPRIMARY-05D26-ASNE yes 100