Will Andrew Sneed be the Democratic nominee for AL-05
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
4 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
448 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jerry Carl be the Republican nominee for AL-01
Will Jerry Carl be the Republican nominee for AL-01?: Jerry Carl
KXALPRIMARY-01R26-JCAR
Cluster 2
Will Gary Palmer be the Republican nominee for AL-06
Will Gary Palmer be the Republican nominee for AL-06?: Gary Palmer
KXALPRIMARY-06R26-GPAL
Cluster 3
Will Joshua McKee be the Republican nominee for AL-01
Will Joshua McKee be the Republican nominee for AL-01?: Joshua McKee
KXALPRIMARY-01R26-JMCK
Cluster 4
Will James Richardson be the Republican nominee for AL-01
Will James Richardson be the Republican nominee for AL-01?: James Richardson
KXALPRIMARY-01R26-JRIC
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Andrew Sneed becomes the Democratic nominee for Alabama's 5th congressional district. At 26%, the market is pricing in meaningful uncertainty about his path to the nomination, suggesting other candidates or factors are viewed as competitive alternatives. The main drivers of this probability would be Sneed's fundraising performance, endorsements from party establishment figures, and polling among likely Democratic primary voters in AL-05. The primary election date would be the key catalyst that resolves this uncertainty, as actual voting results would determine the nominee. Until then, movements in this probability would likely track campaign developments such as candidate entry/exit announcements, major donor commitments, or shifts in local Democratic party dynamics.
- ›Sneed's fundraising totals and cash-on-hand compared to other declared or potential Democratic candidates in AL-05
- ›Endorsements from Alabama Democratic Party leadership, labor organizations, or established figures within the district
- ›Published polling data showing Sneed's support level among likely Democratic primary voters in AL-05
- ›Whether other competitive Democratic candidates announce their candidacy or withdraw from the race
- ›Voter registration and turnout trends in AL-05 that affect the composition of the Democratic primary electorate
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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