Will Andrew Sneed be the Democratic nominee for AL-05
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 51% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
51%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$41
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
496 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will James Richardson be the Republican nominee for AL-01
Will James Richardson be the Republican nominee for AL-01?: James Richardson
KXALPRIMARY-01R26-JRIC
Cluster 2
Will Joshua McKee be the Republican nominee for AL-01
Will Joshua McKee be the Republican nominee for AL-01?: Joshua McKee
KXALPRIMARY-01R26-JMCK
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Andrew Sneed will win the Democratic primary for Alabama's 5th congressional district. At 27%, the market views him as a competitive but not favored candidate in what appears to be an open or contested race. The primary outcome will depend on factors such as candidate field strength, voter turnout patterns in the Democratic primary electorate, and local name recognition among potential contenders. The Democratic primary election itself—scheduled for the state's primary date—will be the decisive event that resolves this prediction. Prior to that vote, candidate announcements, endorsements from party leaders or established figures, and polling data closer to the election would likely move this probability significantly either direction.
- ›Candidate field composition: The number and profile of other Democratic candidates running in AL-05 will materially affect Sneed's primary vote share
- ›Primary election participation rates: Democratic primary turnout in this district relative to historical averages will influence which candidate appeals resonate most
- ›Sneed's name recognition and donor support: Measurable indicators like campaign fundraising, endorsements, and polling performance against named opponents would validate or challenge the 27% assessment
- ›Statewide Democratic lean: Overall Democratic performance in Alabama primaries and the district's demographic composition relative to state averages
- ›Timeline to primary vote: The specific primary election date and remaining time for candidate emergence and campaign development
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (51% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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