Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
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sf trade 0x572c136f2a0ec98f859f795b101261aaa5eb5f1ab1cb12968c6dfa7df15508d7 yes 100