Will APT. be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will APT. be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart.... This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market is extremely illiquid with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading.
Analysis
This market is extremely illiquid with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading. The 2686% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the severe mispricing typical of thin markets, though the modest 19 Cliff Risk Index suggests the binary outcome itself isn't unusually volatile. With 258 days to expiry, there's substantial time for APT.'s streaming trajectory to shift, but the current pricing implies only a 5% chance the song finishes as Spotify's #3 most-streamed track in the US for 2026—a notably specific placement that would require both sustained popularity and favorable competitive dynamics.
Resolution rules
If APT. is the #3 most streamed Song on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-APT yes 100