Will Don’t Say You Love Me be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Don’t Say You Love Me be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the da.... This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The 2686% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic artifact of minimal liquidity rather than genuine market conviction, and the song would need to achieve a highly specific outcome (exactly #3 placement) among millions of tracks to resolve affirmatively. With 258 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a niche novelty market lacking sufficient trading activity to generate meaningful price discovery.
Resolution rules
If Don’t Say You Love Me is the #3 most streamed Song on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-DON yes 100