Will Babydoll be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 29% probability that Will Babydoll be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the c.... This contract trades at 29¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 602.6% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 602.6% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable. The 19-cent spread represents the full bid-ask range on a market trading at 0% probability, suggesting minimal conviction from participants and potential mispricing given that Babydoll would need to become a top-3 song nationally—a specific outcome that shouldn't price at absolute zero. The sharp 2-cent to 19-cent movement over seven days indicates recent activity despite no recorded volume, pointing to possible data lag or very small position sizes in an illiquid venue.
Resolution rules
If Babydoll is the #3 most streamed Song on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-BAB yes 100