Will luther (with sza) be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
12 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
98 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
will golden be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 2
will ordinary be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 3
will manchild be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 4
will your idol be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 5
will soda pop be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 6
will don’t say you love me be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 7
will birds of a feather be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 8
will apt. be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 9
will dtmf be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 10
will luther (with sza) be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 11
will end of beginning be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 12
will man i need be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Analysis
This question asks whether 'luther' featuring SZA will rank as the third-most streamed song on Spotify's 2026 USA year-end Wrapped chart when released in early December. The 8% probability reflects strong competition for the #3 position, with other SZA and contemporary tracks showing higher market estimates. The probability depends on streaming volume accumulation through December 2026, the release timing and promotion of competing tracks, and listener engagement patterns over the final months of the year. Spotify will release the official 2026 Wrapped rankings in early December, at which point the actual chart position becomes known. Until then, relative streaming momentum, chart performance on weekly Spotify playlists, and total listen counts through November will indicate whether 'luther' maintains pace with higher-ranked competitors like 'Man I Need' (21¢) and 'Babydoll' (13¢).
- ›Song's streaming volume and listener engagement through November 2026 compared to songs priced higher in competing markets
- ›Spotify's Wrapped methodology for US rankings and whether 'luther' maintains top-10 positioning relative to other SZA tracks and contemporary releases
- ›Cumulative play counts as of December 2026 wrapped snapshot date and whether the track shows acceleration or plateau in user engagement
- ›Competitive field: 'Man I Need' and 'Babydoll' show significantly higher probabilities, indicating market belief in those tracks' relative performance
- ›Release or promotion timing of competing tracks in Q4 2026 that could affect streaming distribution and 'luther's ranking position
What moved the line
- Sep 17Man I Need↑33pp40→73¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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