Will luther (with sza) be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
7%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
12 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
207 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
will apt. be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 2
will birds of a feather be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 3
will don’t say you love me be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 4
will dtmf be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 5
will end of beginning be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 6
will the fate of ophelia be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 7
will golden be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 8
will luther (with sza) be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 9
will manchild be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 10
will ordinary be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 11
will soda pop be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 12
will your idol be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Analysis
This contract asks whether 'Luther (with SZA)' will rank as the #3 most streamed song on Spotify's 2026 Wrapped Top 10 Songs chart for the USA when released in late 2026. The 8% probability reflects the difficulty of a single song maintaining extremely high streaming volume through the full year while competing against other major releases. The song's ranking depends on cumulative streams from release through year-end; performance drivers include continued chart presence, cultural relevance, playlist placement, and competition from newer releases. The primary resolution catalyst is Spotify's official 2026 Wrapped release, typically occurring in early December, which will definitively show year-to-date streaming rankings.
- ›The song must accumulate enough total streams across the full 2026 calendar year to land exactly in the #3 position among all USA songs on that specific year-end chart
- ›Release timing and date significantly impact final stream totals; earlier 2026 releases have more months to accumulate plays than later releases
- ›Competition from high-performing tracks by Drake, The Weeknd, Taylor Swift, and other major artists throughout 2026 will determine relative ranking
- ›Streaming velocity across months matters; songs with front-loaded popularity may not sustain position, while gradual climbers could rank higher
- ›The exact methodology Spotify uses to calculate 2026 Wrapped rankings (total streams vs. other metrics) directly determines whether specific historical streaming patterns predict this outcome
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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