Will BIRDS OF A FEATHER be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will BIRDS OF A FEATHER be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date .... This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable. The 2,687.8% implied yield on Yes contracts reflects the tiny position size rather than genuine probability assessment, while the 0% risk-adjusted yield suggests the market lacks sufficient depth for meaningful analysis. With 258 days to expiry and a song that would need to sustain top-3 streaming performance throughout 2026, the minimal trading activity makes this more of a novelty listing than a functional prediction market.
Resolution rules
If BIRDS OF A FEATHER is the #3 most streamed Song on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-BIR yes 100