Will Golden be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Golden be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the cha.... This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market displays extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of just $281.29, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable for actual execution.

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5¢
Bid/Ask 0/8¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $281.29·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining
KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-GOL

Analysis

4d ago

This market displays extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of just $281.29, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable for actual execution. The massive 2685.7% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the ultra-low probability pricing rather than genuine market conviction, while the 8¢ spread indicates significant bid-ask uncertainty. With 258 days until expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, this contract carries meaningful uncertainty around both the song's streaming performance and the exact release date of Spotify Wrapped 2026.

Resolution rules

If Golden is the #3 most streamed Song on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2738.4%
IY (No) 7.6%
Adj IY 1369%
CRI 19
Overround -0.1%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)2738.4%
IY (No)7.6%
Adj IY1369%
CRI19
Overround-0.1%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
8¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 11:03:03 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 10:53:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-GOL yes 100

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