The Fate of Ophelia · KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26
The Fate of Ophelia is priced at 16¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 31¢ ask, 31¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26.
Price history
16¢ current
Contract brief
If The Fate of Ophelia is the #3 most streamed Song on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
The Fate of Ophelia
Rank
#1 of 16
Leader
The Fate of Ophelia 16¢
Range
1¢-16¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-FAT
Jun 7, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 22m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
31¢
Spread
31¢
Reported volume
$159
Family rank
#1 of 16
16 outcomes · KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 31¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If The Fate of Ophelia is the #3 most streamed Song on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-FAT
Event family
KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
16
Highest price
The Fate of Ophelia 16¢
Current share
—
The Fate of Ophelia
kalshi · KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-FAT
End of Beginning
kalshi · KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-END
APT.
kalshi · KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-APT
BIRDS OF A FEATHER
kalshi · KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-BIR
Don’t Say You Love Me
kalshi · KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-DON
DtMF
kalshi · KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-DTMF
Golden
kalshi · KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-GOL
luther (with sza)
kalshi · KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-LUT
Manchild
kalshi · KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-MAN
Ordinary
kalshi · KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-ORD
Babydoll
kalshi · KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-BAB
Beat It
kalshi · KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-BEA
iloveitiloveitiloveit
kalshi · KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-ILO
Janice STFU
kalshi · KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-JAN
Make Them Cry
kalshi · KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-MAK
Man I Need
kalshi · KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-MANI
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
cultural
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.