Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 36% probability that Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?. This contract trades at 36¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. Arc's token launch probability has declined 9% over the past week (from 47¢ to 43¢), suggesting weakening market conviction despite 259 days remaining until expiry.
Analysis
Arc's token launch probability has declined 9% over the past week (from 47¢ to 43¢), suggesting weakening market conviction despite 259 days remaining until expiry. The 186.9% implied yield on "Yes" positions reflects substantial asymmetry relative to the 106.3% yield on "No," indicating traders are pricing in meaningful uncertainty around execution, though the 10¢ spread and thin $6.12 daily volume limit confidence in price discovery. With a neutral regime score and low cliff risk, this appears to be a genuine belief divergence rather than a technical anomaly, making it suitable for contrarian positioning if you have conviction on Arc's development timeline.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x0a8d89321f01639ec17b6bcf1ef0b6c15137b1934605f8bffeb50b2f291756d4 yes 100