Will Ava be the #1 most popular baby girl name in 2025?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Ava be the #1 most popular baby girl name in 2025?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $682 open interest, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading.
Analysis
This market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $682 open interest, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading. The extreme 2681% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the low probability pricing rather than genuine opportunity, while the 19 Cliff Risk Index suggests significant resolution uncertainty given that SSA data typically releases well after year-end. Ava has held the #1 spot for multiple years running, making a 5% probability seem potentially underpriced, though the 259-day expiry and neutral regime provide little directional conviction without recent price movement.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Ava is the #1 most popular baby girl name on the Social Security Administration’s list of most popular U.S. baby names in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBABYNAMEGIRL-26DEC-AVA yes 100