Will average **gas prices** be above $3.90?
KXAAAGASM-26APR30-3.90 · closes Apr 30, 2026 · 15 days remaining
Price
Last
90¢
Bid
89¢
Ask
90¢
Spread
1¢
24h Volume
$3,433.76
Open Interest
$18,918.41
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 310.1% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 20302.4% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 8 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 2.5% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.03 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 237% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 1.34 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 1.2/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 19618% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
116 indicator snapshots · 5 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.409
Label
neutral
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/15/2026, 2:56:44 PM
About this market
If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.90 on Apr 30, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXAAAGASM-26APR30-3.90 yes 100