CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
0x0ae89ed96d142cbd7a1ae13c8577056cb062311b944e28dda9938f72e189bcc4 · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 260 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 444.8% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 44.4% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 3 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1723% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 10.21 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 2.7/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 445% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
161 indicator snapshots · 0 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x0ae89ed96d142cbd7a1ae13c8577056cb062311b944e28dda9938f72e189bcc4 yes 100