Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their July 2026 meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their July 2026 meeting?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing July 15, 2026. This market shows severe illiquidity with only $4 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 25¢ price potentially unreliable for forecasting BoC policy.
Analysis
This market shows severe illiquidity with only $4 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 25¢ price potentially unreliable for forecasting BoC policy. The extreme implied yield of 2310% on the Yes side signals either mispricing due to thin liquidity or genuine conviction that a 25bps cut is highly unlikely, though the neutral regime score suggests no strong directional bias in market conditions. With 90 days to expiry and a wide 6¢ spread, this contract lacks sufficient depth for confident trading or analysis.
Resolution rules
If the Bank of Canada does a Cut of 25bps at its Jul 15, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26JUL-C25 yes 100