Will Bennett 2026 win the next Israeli legislative election?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will Bennett 2026 win the next Israeli legislative election?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing October 27, 2027. This illiquid market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with Yes contracts offering a 403% implied yield versus just 10.7% for No, suggesting the 18¢ price significantly undervalues Bennett's chances or reflects severe liquidity constraints rather than genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
This illiquid market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with Yes contracts offering a 403% implied yield versus just 10.7% for No, suggesting the 18¢ price significantly undervalues Bennett's chances or reflects severe liquidity constraints rather than genuine probability assessment. The $1,877 open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate minimal trading activity, while the 9¢ spread is substantial relative to the price, making this market unreliable for serious positioning. The recent 5¢ price decline over seven days combined with 556 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk score (6) suggests this is a speculative position with limited market depth.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Israeli legislative election in 2026 is Bennett 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXISRAELKNESSET-26-BEN yes 100