SimpleFunctions

Cori Bush · Will Bernie Sanders endorse

Cori Bush is priced at 99¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 90¢ bid, 96¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside Will Bernie Sanders endorse.

Price history

99¢ current

+11¢
90¢100¢
May 6, 2026May 31, 2026

Contract brief

If Bernie Sanders publicly endorses Cori Bush in the 2026 MO-1 House election before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Cori Bush

Rank

#1 of 16

Leader

Cori Bush 90¢

Range

1¢-90¢

Family volume

$242

Identifier

KXBERNIEENDORSE-26NOV03-CBUS

Jun 5, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 26m ago

Implied probability

99¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 5, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 26m ago

Bid

90¢

Ask

96¢

Spread

Reported volume

$2K

Family rank

#1 of 16

16 outcomes · Will Bernie Sanders endorse

Closes

Nov 3, 2026

Family volume

$242

Orderbook snapshot

90 / 96¢

Kalshi
6¢ spread
BidSize
90¢5
89¢32
88¢100
86¢200
79¢2.5K
AskSize
96¢100
96¢10
98¢200
99¢1.1K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Bernie Sanders publicly endorses Cori Bush in the 2026 MO-1 House election before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Nov 3, 2026

Identifier

KXBERNIEENDORSE-26NOV03-CBUS

SF Signal
SF Index
1085.69
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

26.8%

IY (No)

2171.4%

Adj IY

1086%

CRI

9

Overround

4.3%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

26.8%
2171.4%
Adj IY
1086%
9
Overround
4.3%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.