Will Bernie Sanders endorse Cori Bush in the 2026 MO-1 House election before Nov 3, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Will Bernie Sanders endorse Cori Bush in the 2026 MO-1 House election before Nov 3, 2026?. This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. The market is pricing an 82% probability that Sanders will endorse Bush, but the extremely illiquid conditions ($0 24-hour volume, $1,178 open interest) and wide 5¢ spread suggest this price may not reflect genuine conviction.
Analysis
The market is pricing an 82% probability that Sanders will endorse Bush, but the extremely illiquid conditions ($0 24-hour volume, $1,178 open interest) and wide 5¢ spread suggest this price may not reflect genuine conviction. The asymmetric implied yields—48.4% for Yes versus 684.5% for No—indicate the market is heavily skewed toward the affirmative outcome, though the low liquidity raises questions about whether this reflects informed consensus or simply sparse trading activity. With 201 days to resolution and a neutral regime, this market lacks sufficient depth to confidently validate the 82¢ price point.
Resolution rules
If Bernie Sanders publicly endorses Cori Bush in the 2026 MO-1 House election before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBERNIEENDORSE-26NOV03-CBUS yes 100