Will Bernie Sanders endorse Alan Grayson in the 2026 United States Senate special election in Florida before Nov 3, 2026?

11¢

Bid/Ask 10/11¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $901·Closes Nov 3, 2026·198d remaining

KXBERNIEENDORSE-26NOV03-AGRA

7-day price4 snapshots · 6 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $901 open interest, and the 1655.9% implied yield on the Yes side signals a deeply mispriced contract rather than genuine market consensus. The 11¢ price reflects skepticism about Sanders endorsing Grayson specifically in Florida, though the recent price movement from 7¢ to 10¢ over seven days suggests modest accumulating interest in the affirmative case. With 198 days to resolution and a high cliff risk index of 9, this appears to be a speculative position rather than an efficiently priced prediction.

Resolution rules

If Bernie Sanders publicly endorses Alan Grayson in the 2026 United States Senate special election in Florida before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1655.9%

IY (No) 20.4%

Adj IY 828%

CRI 9

Overround 3.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1655.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	20.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	828%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	9	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	3.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 6:14:46 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 5:53:19 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBERNIEENDORSE-26NOV03-AGRA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →