SimpleFunctions

Juliana Stratton · Will Bernie Sanders endorse

Juliana Stratton is priced at 33¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 28¢ bid, 35¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 16 inside Will Bernie Sanders endorse.

Price history

33¢ current

+4¢
30¢
May 9, 2026May 31, 2026

Contract brief

If Bernie Sanders publicly endorses Juliana Stratton in the 2026 United States Senate election in Illinois before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Juliana Stratton

Rank

#8 of 16

Leader

Cori Bush 90¢

Range

1¢-90¢

Family volume

$242

Identifier

KXBERNIEENDORSE-26NOV03-JSTR

Jun 5, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 24m ago

Implied probability

33¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 5, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 24m ago

Bid

28¢

Ask

35¢

Spread

Reported volume

$996

Family rank

#8 of 16

16 outcomes · Will Bernie Sanders endorse

Closes

Nov 3, 2026

Family volume

$242

Orderbook snapshot

28 / 35¢

Kalshi
7¢ spread
BidSize
28¢5
27¢100
25¢200
4¢495
4¢55
AskSize
35¢100
36¢200
93¢28
95¢2.2K
95¢53

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Bernie Sanders publicly endorses Juliana Stratton in the 2026 United States Senate election in Illinois before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Nov 3, 2026

Identifier

KXBERNIEENDORSE-26NOV03-JSTR

SF Signal
SF Index
310.37
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

620.7%

IY (No)

93.9%

Adj IY

310%

CRI

3

Overround

4.3%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

620.7%
93.9%
Adj IY
310%
3
Overround
4.3%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.