SimpleFunctions

Charles Booker · Will Bernie Sanders endorse

Charles Booker is priced at 75¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 73¢ bid, 79¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 11 inside Will Bernie Sanders endorse.

Price history

75¢ current

+11¢
75¢
Jun 21, 2026Jul 21, 2026

Contract brief

If Bernie Sanders publicly endorses Charles Booker in the 2026 United States Senate election in Kentucky before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Charles Booker

Rank

#1 of 11

Leader

Charles Booker 73¢

Range

1¢-73¢

Family volume

$308

Identifier

KXBERNIEENDORSE-26NOV03-CBOO

Jul 21, 2026, 11:08 AM UTC · 18m ago

Implied probability

75¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 21, 2026, 11:08 AM UTC · 18m ago

Bid

73¢

Ask

79¢

Spread

24h volume

$300

Family rank

#1 of 11

11 outcomes · Will Bernie Sanders endorse

Closes

Nov 3, 2026

Family volume

$308

Orderbook snapshot

73 / 79¢

Kalshi
6¢ spread
BidSize
73¢5
72¢350
71¢200
55¢230
17¢602
AskSize
79¢4
80¢100
81¢200
82¢100
94¢14

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Bernie Sanders publicly endorses Charles Booker in the 2026 United States Senate election in Kentucky before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Nov 3, 2026

Identifier

KXBERNIEENDORSE-26NOV03-CBOO

SF Signal
SF Index
469.21
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

128.4%

IY (No)

938.4%

Adj IY

469%

CRI

3

Overround

2.4%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

128.4%
938.4%
Adj IY
469%
3
Overround
2.4%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.