What is the current probability for "Will Bitcoin be below $50000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 38¢ (38% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Bitcoin be below $50000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 234.1% and 88.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Bitcoin be below $50000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Bitcoin be below $50000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that Will Bitcoin be below $50000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The Yes side offers an exceptional 194% implied yield with Bitcoin currently trading near the strike at $50k, but the market has experienced significant downward pressure over seven days (49¢ to 42¢), suggesting recent bearish sentiment despite neutral regime conditions.

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38¢

Bid/Ask 38/39¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $3,496.8·OI $160,159.3·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-50000.00

7-day price185 snapshots · 70 regime

54¢38¢ current

Apr 836¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The Yes side offers an exceptional 194% implied yield with Bitcoin currently trading near the strike at $50k, but the market has experienced significant downward pressure over seven days (49¢ to 42¢), suggesting recent bearish sentiment despite neutral regime conditions. The 4¢ spread and modest $481 daily volume indicate relatively thin liquidity for a $156k open interest position, creating potential execution challenges for larger traders. With 259 days to expiration and a realized volatility of 210%, the market is pricing in substantial Bitcoin price swings, though the 1.50 vol ratio suggests current implied volatility may be underpricing tail risk given the binary nature of the $50k threshold.

Resolution rules

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $50000.00 starting Feb 5, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 234.1%

IY (No) 88.0%

Adj IY 114%

CRI 2

EE 14.000

Overround 0.9%

▶ Full indicator table (7)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	234.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	88.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	114%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
EE	14.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	0.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.03	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.442

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:49:02 PM

SF edge 15.0¢ noObservability lowEvent type financial

Edges (1)

NO +15¢thesis — US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the wo

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-50000.00 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →