What is the current probability for "Will Bitcoin be below $55000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 49¢ (49% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Bitcoin be below $55000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 161.8% and 127.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Bitcoin be below $55000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Bitcoin be below $55000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 49% probability that Will Bitcoin be below $55000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?. This contract trades at 49¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market has experienced significant downward price movement over 7 days (60¢ to 50¢, now at 58¢), suggesting recent volatility in conviction about Bitcoin staying below $55k by year-end 2026.

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49¢

Bid/Ask 47/49¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $26,500.12·OI $160,587.73·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-55000.00

7-day price343 snapshots · 83 regime

62¢47¢ current

Apr 842¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The market has experienced significant downward price movement over 7 days (60¢ to 50¢, now at 58¢), suggesting recent volatility in conviction about Bitcoin staying below $55k by year-end 2026. The 140.8% annualized yield on both sides reflects the binary nature and ~259-day timeframe, though the extremely high realized volatility of 416% and vol ratio of 3.49 indicate substantial uncertainty in Bitcoin's trajectory. With $134.8k open interest but only $11.7k daily volume, liquidity is relatively thin for the contract size, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions.

Resolution rules

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $55000.00 starting Feb 5, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 161.8%

IY (No) 127.3%

Adj IY 155%

CRI 1

RV 279%

VR 2.14

▶ Full indicator table (10)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	161.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	127.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	155%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	279%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.14	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
EE	9.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	0.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.04	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.442

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:48:57 PM

SF edge 10.0¢ noObservability lowEvent type financial

Edges (1)

NO +10¢thesis — US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the wo

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-55000.00 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →Realized Volatility →