Will CAVA Group Inc. report Above 455 cava restaurants in Q1 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 88% probability that Will CAVA Group Inc. report Above 455 cava restaurants in Q1 2026?. This contract trades at 88¢ on Kalshi, closing June 13, 2026. The market is pricing in extremely high confidence (94%) that CAVA will exceed 455 restaurants by Q1 2026, supported by a sharp 20-cent rally over seven days that suggests recent positive sentiment or company guidance.
Analysis
The market is pricing in extremely high confidence (94%) that CAVA will exceed 455 restaurants by Q1 2026, supported by a sharp 20-cent rally over seven days that suggests recent positive sentiment or company guidance. However, the severely imbalanced implied yields—73.5% for Yes versus 5956% for No—combined with minimal liquidity ($100 open interest) and a dangerously high Cliff Risk Index of 9 indicate this market lacks depth and may be subject to sharp reversals if new information emerges. The approaching expiry in 55 days and tight 7-cent spread suggest limited trading activity, making this a thin market where the extreme probability may not reflect true uncertainty around CAVA's expansion trajectory.
Resolution rules
If CAVA Group Inc. reports Above 455 cava restaurants in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCAVA-26MAYREST-455 yes 100