Will Dashzegviin Amarbayasgalan win the next Mongolian presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Dashzegviin Amarbayasgalan win the next Mongolian presidential election?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing June 29, 2028. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a notably wide 332.7% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 13¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather sparse historical trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a notably wide 332.7% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 13¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather sparse historical trading. The candidate's probability has declined sharply from 8¢ to 12¢ over seven days, indicating recent negative sentiment, though the modest $1,445 open interest means even small trades could drive significant price swings. With 805 days until resolution and a cliff risk index of 7, this contract carries substantial uncertainty around Mongolia's 2027 election timing and candidate viability, making the extreme yield spread more reflective of illiquidity risk than true arbitrage opportunity.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Mongolian presidential election (expected to be held in 2027 at the latest) is Dashzegviin Amarbayasgalan, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMONGOLIAPRES-27-DAMA yes 100