Will David Raya be in the Spain World Cup final squad?
Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Will David Raya be in the Spain World Cup final squad?. This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing June 16, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable rather than a genuine consensus that Raya has no chance of World Cup selection.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable rather than a genuine consensus that Raya has no chance of World Cup selection. The 156.6% implied yield on the Yes side suggests significant mispricing opportunity if there's any real probability Raya makes Spain's squad, though the 10¢ spread and 58-day timeframe to the 2026 World Cup provide limited liquidity for traders to capitalize on it. The cliff risk index of 4 indicates moderate event concentration risk, and given Raya's status as a competitive goalkeeper option for Spain, the zero price appears to reflect market abandonment rather than informed pricing.
Resolution rules
If David Raya is selected for the final squad for the Spain national team for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXWCSQUAD-26ESP-DRAY yes 100