Will Donald Trump Jr. attend Trump's crypto & business conference (originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026)?
Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that Will Donald Trump Jr. attend Trump's crypto & business conference (originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026)?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Kalshi, closing April 26, 2026. This market exhibits extreme annualized yields exceeding 3,700% on both sides, driven by its imminent 10-day expiration and minimal open interest of just $2,861.46, creating a classic end-game liquidity crunch where small positions generate outsized percentage returns.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme annualized yields exceeding 3,700% on both sides, driven by its imminent 10-day expiration and minimal open interest of just $2,861.46, creating a classic end-game liquidity crunch where small positions generate outsized percentage returns. The 53¢ price has climbed 10 cents over seven days amid a realized volatility of 304%, yet the modest 24-hour volume of $399.73 and tight 4¢ spread suggest thin trading with limited conviction either direction. With resolution occurring just one day after the conference date (4/26/2026), the market faces cliff risk and depends entirely on timely confirmation of Trump Jr.'s attendance, making this a binary event bet rather than a probability assessment.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump Jr. attends Trump's crypto & business conference (originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPCRYPTOCONF-26-DTJR yes 100