Will Kraken IPO by end of 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 16 contracts. Kalshi at 3%, Polymarket at 30% — a 27pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
3%
15 contracts
Polymarket
30%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
27pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$809K
16 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
190 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 3¢ · Polymarket 30¢ · 27pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (3¢, 15 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (30¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
3 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Bitcoin price range on Jun 26, 2026” vs “Will ETH trimmed mean be above $”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Bitcoin price range on Jun 26, 2026
Bitcoin price range on Jun 26, 2026?
KXBTC-26JUN2617-B63250
Bitcoin price range on Jun 26, 2026?
KXBTC-26JUN2617-B64250
Bitcoin price range on Jun 26, 2026?
KXBTC-26JUN2617-B63750
Bitcoin price range on Jun 26, 2026?
KXBTC-26JUN2617-B64750
Bitcoin price range on Jun 26, 2026?
KXBTC-26JUN2617-B56250
Bitcoin price range on Jun 26, 2026?
KXBTC-26JUN2617-B62250
Bitcoin price range on Jun 26, 2026?
KXBTC-26JUN2617-B53750
Bitcoin price range on Jun 26, 2026?
KXBTC-26JUN2617-T50500
Cluster 2
Will ETH trimmed mean be above $
Will ETH trimmed mean be above $2250.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?
KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26JUN30-225000
Will ETH trimmed mean be above $2500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?
KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26JUN30-250000
Will ETH trimmed mean be above $3250.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?
KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26JUN30-325000
Will ETH trimmed mean be above $2750.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?
KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26JUN30-275000
Will ETH trimmed mean be above $3000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?
KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26JUN30-300000
Will ETH trimmed mean be above $3500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?
KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26JUN30-350000
Will ETH trimmed mean be above $3750.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?
KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26JUN30-375000
Cluster 3
Kraken IPO by ___
Kraken IPO by ___ ?: December 31, 2026
0xced0cb…9e1f
What moved the line
- Jun 25Bitcoin price range on Jun 26, 2026?↓6pp7→1¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Bitcoin price range on Jun 26, 2026?↑4pp3→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Bitcoin price range on Jun 26, 2026?↓4pp7→3¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Bitcoin price range on Jun 26, 2026?↓3pp5→2¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.