Will Kraken IPO by end of 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 47% across 14 contracts. Kalshi at 51%, Polymarket at 38% — a 13pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
51%
10 contracts
Polymarket
38%
4 contracts
Cross-venue gap
13pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$599K
14 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
128 days
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 51¢ · Polymarket 38¢ · 13pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (38¢, 4 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (51¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
3 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “When will Oura Health Oy officially announce an IPO” vs “Kraken IPO by ___”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
When will Oura Health Oy officially announce an IPO
When will Oura Health Oy officially announce an IPO?
KXIPOOURA-26OCT01
When will Oura Health Oy officially announce an IPO?
KXIPOOURA-27JAN01
When will Oura Health Oy officially announce an IPO?
KXIPOOURA-27APR01
When will Oura Health Oy officially announce an IPO?
KXIPOOURA-27JUL01
When will Oura Health Oy officially announce an IPO?
KXIPOOURA-28JAN01
When will Oura Health Oy officially announce an IPO?
KXIPOOURA-27OCT01
Cluster 2
Kraken IPO by ___
Cluster 3
When will Airtable officially announce an IPO
When will Airtable officially announce an IPO?
KXIPOAIRTABLE-28JAN01
When will Airtable officially announce an IPO?
KXIPOAIRTABLE-29JAN01
When will Airtable officially announce an IPO?
KXIPOAIRTABLE-27JAN01
When will Airtable officially announce an IPO?
KXIPOAIRTABLE-30JAN01
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.