SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (Aug 26, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
14 source contracts·Kalshi 10 + Polymarket 4·closed just now·Closes Jan 1, 2027 · 128d

Will Kraken IPO by end of 2026?

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 47% across 14 contracts. Kalshi at 51%, Polymarket at 38% — a 13pp cross-venue gap.

Implied probability

47%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

51%

10 contracts

Polymarket

38%

4 contracts

Cross-venue gap

13pp

wide divergence

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$599K

14 contracts

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

128 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 63% (28 days, 28 points)Aggregate: 63% on 2026-08-27
Aggregate of 14 contracts · 28d

Cross-venue edge

Kalshi 51¢ · Polymarket 38¢ · 13pp spread

Buy on Polymarket (38¢, 4 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (51¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.

Bracket families

3 clusters across 14 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “When will Oura Health Oy officially announce an IPO” vs “Kraken IPO by ___”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

What moved the line

  • Aug 26When will Oura Health Oy officially announce an IPO?8pp7482¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 27When will Oura Health Oy officially announce an IPO?8pp8274¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 25When will Oura Health Oy officially announce an IPO?6pp7682¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 26When will Oura Health Oy officially announce an IPO?5pp611¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 20When will Airtable officially announce an IPO?5pp1611¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in markets

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.