Will DoorDash, Inc. report above 920 million Total Orders in Q1 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will DoorDash, Inc. report above 920 million Total Orders in Q1 2026?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing July 31, 2026. The market is pricing in a 91% probability that DoorDash will exceed 920 million orders in Q1 2026, but the extreme 3112% implied yield on the No side reveals severe liquidity constraints—only $3,347 in open interest with minimal 24-hour volume of $21.22 suggests this is a thin, illiquid market where the No price may not reflect true probability.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 91% probability that DoorDash will exceed 920 million orders in Q1 2026, but the extreme 3112% implied yield on the No side reveals severe liquidity constraints—only $3,347 in open interest with minimal 24-hour volume of $21.22 suggests this is a thin, illiquid market where the No price may not reflect true probability. The 181% realized volatility and 9/10 cliff risk index indicate significant uncertainty despite the high Yes price, and with 106 days to resolution, the market has ample time for material information arrival (0.8 events per hour) to shift positioning substantially.
Resolution rules
If DoorDash, Inc. reports above 920 million Total Orders in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDASHORDERS-26JUL-920 yes 100