Will exactly 0 Senate Republican members lose their primary in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will exactly 0 Senate Republican members lose their primary in 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely unlikely scenario—exactly zero Republican Senate primary losses in 2026—at just 6¢, implying a 94% probability that at least one GOP senator loses their primary.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely unlikely scenario—exactly zero Republican Senate primary losses in 2026—at just 6¢, implying a 94% probability that at least one GOP senator loses their primary. The astronomical 5883% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the severe mispricing or genuine conviction that primary challengers will successfully unseat at least one incumbent, which aligns with historical patterns of intra-party competition. With $20,712 in open interest but zero 24-hour volume and a tight 1¢ spread, liquidity is essentially frozen, suggesting this market has attracted minimal trader interest despite the extreme odds and 201 days to expiry.
Resolution rules
If the number of Republican Senate members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLOSEPRIMARYSENATER-26NOV03-0 yes 100