What is the current probability for "Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q1 2026 be above -0.5%?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 97¢ (97% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 30, 2026. 8 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q1 2026 be above -0.5%?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 230.4% and 83183.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q1 2026 be above -0.5%?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q1 2026 be above -0.5%?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 97% probability that Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q1 2026 be above -0.5%?. This contract trades at 97¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with zero liquidity ($0 volume and open interest) and a massive 7-cent spread despite a dramatic 83-cent price surge over seven days, suggesting potential data errors or a broken market.

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97¢mid

Bid/Ask 95/99¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Apr 30, 2026·8d remaining

KXFRGDPQOQP-26APR30-T-0.5

7-day price7 snapshots · 3 regime

95¢95¢ current

Apr 89¢Apr 19

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme distress signals with zero liquidity ($0 volume and open interest) and a massive 7-cent spread despite a dramatic 83-cent price surge over seven days, suggesting potential data errors or a broken market. The 0% current price contradicts the recent rally to 92 cents, indicating severe pricing dysfunction rather than genuine conviction that French Q1 2026 GDP will contract by 0.5% or more. With only 13 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 12, this market appears unreliable for analysis and should be avoided until liquidity normalizes.

Resolution rules

If France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q1 2026 is above -0.5 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 230.4%

IY (No) 83183.4%

Adj IY 39841%

CRI 19

Overround 4.4%

LAS 0.04

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	230.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	83183.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	39841%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	4.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.04	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.568

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:35:10 PM

Observability highEvent type data_release

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXFRGDPQOQP-26APR30-T-0.5 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →