Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.1%?
Prediction markets currently give a 87% probability that Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.1%?. This contract trades at 87¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite an unusually wide 13¢ spread and imminent expiry in 11 days.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite an unusually wide 13¢ spread and imminent expiry in 11 days. The 0¢ price implies near-zero probability of German YoY GDP growth exceeding 0.1% in Q1 2026, yet the astronomical implied yields (860% for Yes, 13,763% for No) and elevated cliff risk suggest the market may be mispriced or abandoned rather than reflecting genuine consensus. The recent price movement from 83¢ to 80¢ indicates some historical trading, but current conditions suggest this is a dead market unlikely to attract meaningful liquidity before resolution.
Resolution rules
If Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 is above 0.1 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDEGDPYOYF-26APR30-T0.1 yes 100