Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?
0x8b2d3edd0500a52b39676e1d59a0da5ac145f4e03e97b0d0412da13ca0e70c2a · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 260 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 498.2% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 39.6% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1182% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 5.09 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 1.3/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 498% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
82 indicator snapshots · 2 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to trade
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Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x8b2d3edd0500a52b39676e1d59a0da5ac145f4e03e97b0d0412da13ca0e70c2a yes 100