Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?
Prediction markets currently give a 51% probability that Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?. This contract trades at 51¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows minimal trading activity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 4¢ spread and moderate open interest of $4,861, suggesting low liquidity for a nomination contract with over 200 days to expiration.
Analysis
This market shows minimal trading activity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 4¢ spread and moderate open interest of $4,861, suggesting low liquidity for a nomination contract with over 200 days to expiration. The 53¢ price has risen 4 cents over the past week, but the extraordinarily high implied yields (161% for Yes, 205% for No) indicate the market is pricing in significant uncertainty or potential cliff risk around the November 2026 resolution date. The neutral regime score and modest cliff risk index suggest this is a relatively stable market without imminent catalysts, though the lack of recent trading volume makes the 53¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate.
Resolution rules
If Joe Baldacci wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 ME-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXME02D-26-JBAL yes 100