Will John Lujan be the Republican nominee for TX-35?
Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Will John Lujan be the Republican nominee for TX-35?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 7¢ spread, suggesting the 24¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 7¢ spread, suggesting the 24¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus. The 338.8% implied yield on the Yes side is notably inflated—a classic sign of thin markets where small positions can distort pricing mechanics. With 566 days until expiry and a moderate 5 cliff risk index, there's substantial time for the market to develop liquidity, though the recent downward drift from 17¢ to 16¢ indicates soft conviction in the nomination odds.
Resolution rules
If John Lujan wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 TX-35 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTXPRIMARY-35R26-JLUJ yes 100