Will Keisha Lance Bottoms be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?
Prediction markets currently give a 66% probability that Will Keisha Lance Bottoms be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?. This contract trades at 66¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. The market has experienced significant downward pressure over the past week, dropping 20 cents from 80¢ to 60¢, suggesting deteriorating sentiment around Bottoms' nomination prospects despite the still-substantial 62% implied probability.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant downward pressure over the past week, dropping 20 cents from 80¢ to 60¢, suggesting deteriorating sentiment around Bottoms' nomination prospects despite the still-substantial 62% implied probability. The extremely high realized volatility of 317% and asymmetric implied yields (121% for Yes vs. 273% for No) indicate substantial uncertainty and potential mispricing, with the No side offering notably better risk-adjusted returns. With only $18.6K open interest and $2.9K daily volume, liquidity is thin for a market with 201 days to expiry, making the recent sharp move potentially vulnerable to reversal on modest order flow.
Also on polymarket at 71¢(Δ -5¢)
Resolution rules
If Keisha Lance Bottoms wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Georgia Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVGANOMD-26-KLB yes 100