Will legislation appropriating at least $1 billion to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for FY2026 become law before May 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Will legislation appropriating at least $1 billion to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for FY2026 becom.... This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The market has experienced dramatic repricing, collapsing 56¢ to 27¢ over seven days, suggesting either new legislative headwinds or shifting expectations about FY2026 appropriations timing.
Analysis
The market has experienced dramatic repricing, collapsing 56¢ to 27¢ over seven days, suggesting either new legislative headwinds or shifting expectations about FY2026 appropriations timing. With only 15 days to resolution and minimal liquidity ($234.41 daily volume against $2,427.88 open interest), the extreme implied yields (6,803% for Yes) reflect the binary nature and tight deadline rather than genuine opportunity. The elevated realized volatility (2,921%) and cliff risk index of 3 indicate this is a high-uncertainty event where late-breaking legislative developments could dramatically shift pricing in either direction.
Resolution rules
If legislation appropriating at least $1 billion to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for FY2026 has become law before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDHSCOMPONENT-26MAR-FEMA yes 100