Will Liam be the #1 most popular baby boy name in 2025?
Prediction markets currently give a 87% probability that Will Liam be the #1 most popular baby boy name in 2025?. This contract trades at 87¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The market is pricing Liam at an extremely high 81¢ probability with minimal liquidity ($1,318 open interest and zero 24-hour volume), suggesting limited conviction despite the steep price.
Analysis
The market is pricing Liam at an extremely high 81¢ probability with minimal liquidity ($1,318 open interest and zero 24-hour volume), suggesting limited conviction despite the steep price. The asymmetric payoff structure is striking—the No side offers a 643% risk-adjusted implied yield versus just 31% for Yes—indicating the market may be overweighting Liam's chances given that SSA data won't be released until mid-2026, leaving substantial time for price discovery. With 259 days to expiration and a realized volatility of 198%, this appears to be a thin, potentially mispriced market where the high Yes price may reflect anchoring rather than fundamental conviction.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Liam is the #1 most popular baby boy name on the Social Security Administration’s list of most popular U.S. baby names in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBABYNAMEBOY-26DEC-LIA yes 100