Will Mandatory funding for all of DHS lasting at least 1 year be in the next reconciliation bill?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Mandatory funding for all of DHS lasting at least 1 year be in the next reconciliation bill?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market has experienced extreme volatility, plummeting 77% over seven days from 66¢ to 15¢, suggesting a significant shift in market sentiment regarding DHS funding inclusion in the next reconciliation bill.
Analysis
The market has experienced extreme volatility, plummeting 77% over seven days from 66¢ to 15¢, suggesting a significant shift in market sentiment regarding DHS funding inclusion in the next reconciliation bill. The 20¢ price implies only a 20% probability despite a notably high implied yield of 796.7% for Yes positions, indicating substantial uncertainty and potential mispricing given the 260-day timeframe to resolution. Liquidity is thin with just $300 in 24-hour volume and $1,981 open interest, making the extreme yield figures less reliable and the 5¢ spread relatively wide for such a low-priced contract.
Resolution rules
If the next reconciliation bill to become law includes mandatory funding for all of DHS lasting at least 1 year before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXRECBILL-27-DHS1 yes 100