Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Polymarket, closing July 1, 2026. MetaMask's token launch probability has declined sharply from 9¢ to 7¢ over the past week, now pricing in just a 7% chance of token issuance by June 30, 2026.
Analysis
MetaMask's token launch probability has declined sharply from 9¢ to 7¢ over the past week, now pricing in just a 7% chance of token issuance by June 30, 2026. The extraordinarily high implied yield of 6,468% on the Yes side reflects the extreme illiquidity and long-tail risk nature of this bet, with only $529k in 24-hour volume against $8.2M open interest. With 75 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 13, this market appears to be pricing in strong skepticism about near-term token launch announcements, despite MetaMask's parent ConsenSys having previously explored tokenomics.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Metamask officially launches a token by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Metamask, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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sf trade 0x44878f202dd18a286de9235acec372e9e6e6ca2b28d269c4138fc2604c9b78a9 yes 100