Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Mike Waltz be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 20, 2029. 1005 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will Mike Waltz be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 871.9% and 1.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will Mike Waltz be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	871.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	436%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Will Mike Waltz be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?

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