Will Odongiin Tsogtgerel win the next Mongolian presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Will Odongiin Tsogtgerel win the next Mongolian presidential election?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Kalshi, closing June 29, 2028. This market shows extremely asymmetric risk-adjusted returns, with the Yes side offering 170.7% implied yield versus just 12.1% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of Tsogtgerel's chances relative to consensus expectations.
Analysis
This market shows extremely asymmetric risk-adjusted returns, with the Yes side offering 170.7% implied yield versus just 12.1% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of Tsogtgerel's chances relative to consensus expectations. The $0 24-hour volume combined with only $514 open interest indicates severe illiquidity, making the 23¢ price potentially unreliable and subject to wide swings on minimal trading activity. With 805 days until expiration and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 4, there's adequate time for information to surface, but the illiquidity and extreme yield skew warrant caution—this could represent either genuine market inefficiency or reflect genuine uncertainty about a lesser-known candidate in Mongolian politics.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Mongolian presidential election (expected to be held in 2027 at the latest) is Odongiin Tsogtgerel, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMONGOLIAPRES-27-OTSO yes 100