What is the current probability for "Will Oscar Diaz win Top Chef Season 23?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 9¢ (9% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 7, 2027. 261 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Oscar Diaz win Top Chef Season 23?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3360.6% and 5.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Oscar Diaz win Top Chef Season 23?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Oscar Diaz win Top Chef Season 23?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Oscar Diaz win Top Chef Season 23?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing January 7, 2027. Oscar Diaz is priced at an extremely depressed 6¢ with an extraordinary 2153% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe undervaluation or near-zero perceived winning probability among traders.

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9¢

Bid/Ask 4/13¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $684.13·OI $9,865.6·Closes Jan 7, 2027·261d remaining

KXTOPCHEF-26DEC31-OSC

7-day price179 snapshots · 29 regime

37¢4¢ current

Apr 81¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

Oscar Diaz is priced at an extremely depressed 6¢ with an extraordinary 2153% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe undervaluation or near-zero perceived winning probability among traders. The 7-day price decline from 8¢ to 6¢ combined with modest $949 daily volume and tight $8.4k open interest indicates thin liquidity and potential for sharp reversals, though the 266-day runway to expiry provides ample time for sentiment shifts. The 16 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution—this extreme yield setup typically signals either a contrarian opportunity or a market consensus that Diaz has virtually no shot at the title.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 9¢(Δ 0¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.78IY 3688.9%Close-time delta 3855h

Resolution rules

If Oscar Diaz is officially declared the winner of Top Chef Season 23 before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3360.6%

IY (No) 5.8%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 24

RV 5673%

VR 12.94

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3360.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	5.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	5673%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	12.94	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	3.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 11:00:09 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 10:53:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTOPCHEF-26DEC31-OSC yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →