What is the current probability for "Will SOL trimmed mean be above $110.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 1, 2026. 9 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will SOL trimmed mean be above $110.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 78379.3% and 217.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will SOL trimmed mean be above $110.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will SOL trimmed mean be above $110.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will SOL trimmed mean be above $110.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3¢ price implying only 3% probability that SOL's trimmed mean will touch $110 by April 30, 2026—yet SOL is currently trading around $190-200, making this a substantial downside move requirement over 11 months.

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5¢

Bid/Ask 1/5¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $601·OI $6,963.81·Closes May 1, 2026·9d remaining

KXSOLMAXMON-SOL-26APR30-11000

7-day price471 snapshots · 17 regime

11¢1¢ current

Apr 81¢Apr 22

Analysis

2d ago

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3¢ price implying only 3% probability that SOL's trimmed mean will touch $110 by April 30, 2026—yet SOL is currently trading around $190-200, making this a substantial downside move requirement over 11 months. The astronomical 100,000% implied yield on Yes contracts combined with minimal $1 daily volume and $6,348 open interest suggests severe illiquidity and potential for sharp repricing, especially given the realized volatility of 3,204% and recent 73% price collapse from 8¢ to 3¢ over seven days. With 11 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, this appears to be either a data anomaly or a deeply mispriced tail bet that could attract sharp traders if liquidity improves.

Resolution rules

If the price of SOL after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026 is ever above $110.00, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 78379.3%

IY (No) 217.1%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 19

RV 13532%

VR 1.46

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	78379.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	217.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	13532%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.46	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	1.60	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 8:28:53 AM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 7:38:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXSOLMAXMON-SOL-26APR30-11000 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →