SimpleFunctions
1 source contract·Kalshi 1·refreshed just now·Closes Jul 1, 2026 · 8d

Will SOL trimmed mean be above $105.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

3%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

3%

1 contract

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$829

1 contracts

Closes

Jul 1, 2026

8 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 2% (24 days, 24 points)Aggregate: 2% on 2026-06-25
Aggregate of 1 contract · 24d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will SOL trimmed mean be above $90.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026

1 contract$829

Analysis

This contract asks whether Solana's trimmed mean price will exceed $105 by the end of April 2026, currently priced at 4% probability. The low probability reflects skepticism that SOL will appreciate significantly from recent levels over the next ten months. The main factor supporting higher prices would be sustained institutional adoption or positive regulatory developments for crypto assets, while macroeconomic headwinds, competitive pressures from other blockchains, or broader market downturns could keep prices lower. SOL's actual price movement through Q3 and Q4 2025, alongside Bitcoin's trajectory (which historically correlates with altcoin performance), will be the primary driver of how this uncertainty resolves.

  • SOL's current trading price relative to $105 target and historical volatility patterns
  • Bitcoin's price direction and broader cryptocurrency market sentiment through late 2025 and early 2026
  • Regulatory announcements or policy changes affecting crypto asset classification and trading in major markets
  • Solana network adoption metrics and competitive positioning versus Ethereum and other Layer 1 blockchains
  • Macroeconomic conditions and risk-on sentiment in equities and alternative assets heading into April 2026

What moved the line

  • Jun 18Above $90.005pp72¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.