Will St. Louis Battlehawks be the UFL champion?

Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that Will St. Louis Battlehawks be the UFL champion?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Kalshi, closing June 28, 2026. This illiquid micro-market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 1229% implied yield on Yes contracts against only 226% on No, suggesting severe underpricing of the Battlehawks' championship odds relative to the market's No position.

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30¢
Bid/Ask 5/77¢·Spread 72¢·Vol $0·OI $15.88·Closes Jun 28, 2026·67d remaining
KXUFLCHAMP-26-STL
7-day price8 snapshots · 3 regime
30¢5¢ current
Apr 171¢Apr 21

Analysis

2d ago

This illiquid micro-market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 1229% implied yield on Yes contracts against only 226% on No, suggesting severe underpricing of the Battlehawks' championship odds relative to the market's No position. The $15.88 open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate virtually no trading activity, making the 30¢ price potentially unreliable; the 80¢ spread is extraordinarily wide for a binary contract. With 69 days to expiration and a neutral regime, this appears to be a dead market where the price may not reflect true probabilities, and any trade execution could face significant slippage.

Resolution rules

If St. Louis Battlehawks is the 2026 UFL Championship winner, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 10321.2%
IY (No) 28.6%
Adj IY 0%
CRI 19
Overround -0.1%
LAS 14.60
▶ Full indicator table (6)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)10321.2%
IY (No)28.6%
Adj IY0%
CRI19
Overround-0.1%
LAS14.60

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Computed
4/21/2026, 9:30:51 PM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXUFLCHAMP-26-STL yes 100

Related concepts

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